Published on: 17/02/2024
Shattering the Myth: Why BTC and ETH are Immune to 51% Attacks
In a world where cybersecurity threats are increasingly rampant, crypto enthusiasts can breathe a sigh of relief. A recent groundbreaking study by Coin Metrics suggests that Bitcoin and Ethereum networks are potentially immune to destructive 51% and 34% attacks respectively. Previously, these attacks were considered a looming universal threat across the blockchain universe, but this exciting revelation reshapes our understanding of the security parameters within the crypto space.
At the crux of this discovery is the astronomical cost required to execute such attacks, rendering them financially unjustifiable to potential actors, even at the nation-state level. A 51% attack entails a potential malevolent actor owning over 51% of the mining hash rate in proof-of-work systems like Bitcoin, or over 51% of staked crypto in proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum. With such control, they could manipulate the blockchain, potentially altering transaction confirmations or even double-spending tokens. Needless to say, such an occurrence would strike a fatal blow to the victimized networks credibility.
Utilizing a brand-new metric known as Total Cost to Attack (TCA), the Coin Metrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matias Andrade crafted a tangible representation of the financial magnitude necessary to launch a 51% attack. Their findings were astonishing: even in the most optimistic scenarios, attackers would fail to profit from attacking either network. In a hypothetical scenario where a return of $1 billion was feasible following an expenditure of $40 billion, the rate of return barely scratches 2.5%. In any financial playbook, this is not an attractive investment.
To make matters even more daunting for potential attackers, the hardware requirements are prohibitively high. A 51% attack on Bitcoin would necessitate purchasing 7 million ASIC mining rigs, ballparked roughly to a staggering $20 billion. Few, if any, market forces are capable of mustering these resources, ruling out a substantial part of potential threats.
As for Ethereum, with its staking scheme, the analysts highlighted the inflated concerns regarding a 34% attack from Lido validators. Many in the community had pegged the rapid escalation of liquid staking derivative (LSD) providers — LidoDAO leading the pack — as a mounting hazard to the Ethereum ecosystem. Yet, the analysis indicates that executing such attacks by maneuvering around LSDs would be exceptionally expensive and time-consuming, coming in at over $34 billion and taking about six months.
Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, lauded Coin Metrics research as enormously important. He underscored the novelty of this research, asserting that never before had such a comprehensive and empirical analysis been conducted.
These findings have profound implications not only for the security of Bitcoin and Ethereum but also for the overall integrity of crypto markets. They offer investors and builders an unprecedented degree of assurance in the robustness and resilience of these networks. This improved faith could stimulate more in-depth engagement with cryptocurrencies and crypto-related technologies, attracting not only conventional capital but also innovative brains.
To interpret these events further, they signal an integral milestone in the maturing crypto market. Rigorous research that reaches beyond theoretical discourse and instead dwells on empirical analysis fosters a deeper understanding of market mechanics and the inherent challenges they might present. This, in turn, fuels informed speculation and creates a more stable environment, driving both market sustainability and investment attractiveness.
In light of this new-found enlightenment, investors could steer their capital more confidently, and potential project implementers might feel more reassured when venturing into the crypto space. As the market contemplates these vital insights, the evolutionary dynamics and overall maturity of the crypto sector continue to be fascinating spectacles to observe, analyze, and participate in.